IIBA® Quick Tips for Better Business Analysis™
Quick Tip 23: Weapons of Influence - Scarcity
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Last month we discussed authority -- one of the six "weapons of influence" researched by Robert Cialdini and documented in Influence: Science and Practice. You may not have direct power, but you can increase your impact by practicing influence. In this Quick Tip we discuss practical, ethical ways for BAs to exert indirect power using these principles. This is the last Quick Tip about Weapons of Influence.
Scarcity: You tend to engage in risky, impulsive behaviours to avoid loss, but not to make equivalent gains.
You treat scarcity and value as if they are the same thing; they are not. For example, love -- a ubiquitous human experience -- feels rare because it is important.
Some scarcity is imposed through human actions (OPEC restricting oil production); some is natural (experience takes time to develop).
Examples: This weapon of influence is pervasive and powerful.
- Imposed scarcity moves products. "SALE TODAY ONLY!" limits the time you have to make a purchase, increasing the apparent worth of the product.
- Potential loss drives risky action. Businesses throw millions of dollars at failing projects because there is a vanishing chance that a loss can be avoided, and sunk costs recovered. At the same time projects with large potential benefits may go unfunded. Poker players call this 'pot committed'. It is also called 'throwing good money after bad.'
Ethics: This weapon of influence helps explain why negative political campaigns are so tempting and so effective. The principle applies in business as well: it can help you get your business case funded. To make your business case appear more valuable, emphasize losses the company will face by failing to fund it. To make it appear more valuable than competing business cases, emphasize the losses the company will suffer by implementing them. If you use this weapon to gain support for an initiative that will deliver solid, strategically aligned benefits, you're likely behaving ethically. If you use it to quash ideas and overwhelm the evidence, you're likely not.
Hints: Guard against this weapon by rigorously analysing the risks presented, instead of being seduced by the impacts. Compare good and bad possible outcomes by making them all negative or all positive. For example, compare the risk of failure to benefits that will be lost through inaction.
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